Wednesday, February 24, 2021

How is the figure per 100,000 population calculated?

A couple of people (on the Huerta Nueva Facebook forum) have mentioned this in their posts so hopefully the following may help.

100,000 is divided by the population of the town, which in Los Gallardos is 2,902.

This figure is then multiplied by the number of cases recorded in the last 14 days.

Today Los Gallardos has 22 cases recorded in the last 14 days.
Therefore 100,000 ÷ 2,902 = 34.46
34.46 x 22 = 758.1

The total number of cases from Friday 12th February to today is 21.

Even with no new cases tomorrow, when the committee meet to discuss any changes, Los Gallardos will still have a rate of 723.6 which is where we were yesterday.

To drop below 500 Los Gallardos will need 14 cases or less recorded in the last 14 days.

Counting back it is Friday 12th with 4 cases and Monday 15th February with 6 new cases that are holding us back. Since Tuesday 16th we have only had 11 new cases.

If anyone wants to checks my maths as to when we will drop below 500 here are the daily figures for the last 14 days.

Thursday 11th - 1
Friday 12th - 4

Monday 15th - 6
Tuesday 16th - 1
Wednesday 17th - 4
Thursday 18th - 2
Friday 19th - 0

Monday 22nd - 2
Tuesday 23rd - 0
Wednesday 24th - 2

With no new recorded cases, Tuesday 2nd March will be the earliest that I think we can see a figure below 500.

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